The ruble came out and fell. Sharp jumps are not excluded

The problem of the fall of the ruble is the most discussed topic of the past year. Gradually decreasing in price, in the winter of 2018-2019. the Russian currency has reached a critical low. Experts attribute this situation to cheaper oil, the pressure of sanctions from Western countries, and the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine.

What happened to the ruble in 2019, and how can this change the lives of Russian citizens?

Read objective forecasts and expert opinions in this article.

Recent events in the foreign exchange market and the future of the ruble

The last months of 2015 were overshadowed by a sharp depreciation of the Russian currency. 70 rubles seemed to be the maximum possible price of a dollar. Citizens expected that a gradual normalization of the situation in the foreign exchange market would begin in January, but the devaluation continued against the backdrop of a decrease in oil prices.

When the price of a barrel of Brent oil fell below $30, very controversial opinions began to appear regarding the ruble exchange rate:

• Some analysts said that this means the collapse of the Russian currency and the fall of the economy based on the trade in hydrocarbons into a protracted crisis.
• Proponents of the opposite position saw in this positive points: the national economy of Russia, absorbed by stagnation, will quickly look for a way out of the situation, which lies in the development of industrial sectors.

One way or another, the devaluation of the ruble continues to be relevant, and its negative impact on the economy is quite obvious. The budget deficit, the closure of enterprises, inflation, the decline in the welfare of citizens.

It is rather difficult to predetermine the future of the Russian currency in such a situation - released into free float, it is dependent on, which is tied to oil.

In this regard, regarding the forecasts of changes in the exchange rate of the Russian currency, we can talk about the formation of two points of view:

1. In 2016, the price of the dollar will fluctuate between 75-80 rubles , since this is an objectively justified rate with the official inflation rate of 6.5-7%. If this indicator is exceeded, the Bank of Russia will resort to interventions.
2. This year, the dollar will drop to 67-68, and by the beginning of 2017 to 65 rubles . The reasons for this trend will be the growth of oil prices, the gradual lifting of sanctions and the slow activation of manufacturing industries.

Some Western experts point out that the devaluation of the ruble will lead to a huge budget deficit . To prevent it, the fair exchange rate of the dollar should be 210 rubles.

Initially, the Russian budget was based on an oil price of $50 per barrel. However, at the beginning of the year, it was revised to a $25 value. At the same time, neither the Ministry of Economic Development nor the Central Bank of the Russian Federation promise any global fall of the ruble.

Should the Russians start preparing for the worst?

Such a statement is somewhat biased. One should not prepare for the worst - the ruble has already reached its lowest possible mark and the Bank of Russia simply will not allow it to fall further. Nevertheless, it is not desirable to expect a bright future from an economy that is in a state of stagnation.

It is worth highlighting several key trends that will affect Russians amid the depreciation of the ruble in 2016:

1. Prices for goods - the most painful issue . According to forecasts, a significant increase in the cost of goods is not expected. Inflation is set at 6.4% (with a pessimistic scenario of 7%). The Antimonopoly Service will control speculation in the commodity market. Only equipment, most of which is imported and traded in dollars, will significantly increase in price.

2. Utility tariffs - differentiated approach . The concerns of Russians about rising prices for water, electricity and gas are not justified. The rise in price will be associated only with indexation and will range from 3 to 6.5%, depending on the region (the maximum percentage is provided for in Moscow and St. Petersburg). Electricity tariffs are planned to be distributed on a progressive scale: the greater the consumption, the higher the cost.

3. Social payments - indexation in conditions of deficit . The Russian budget deficit in 2016 is inevitable. However, even under these conditions, a decision was made to increase pensions, allowances, scholarships for students by 4%. Maternity capital will remain unchanged.

4. Mortgage Loans - Unfounded Concerns . In March .

Citizens' fears that banks will immediately raise interest rates to unattainable levels are groundless:

• Firstly , excessive high interest inaccessible to banks due to significant competition in this segment.
• Secondly , a slight increase in the cost of mortgages (up to 14-15%) will lead to a drop in demand for housing, which in turn will significantly reduce the price square meter area.

The general conclusion on the state of the Russian economy is as follows - deepening of the crisis is not expected , although unemployment and prices are expected to rise. Stagnation will remain within the former boundaries. By the end of the year, some recovery is expected against the backdrop of the development of import-substituting industries. If the sanctions are lifted, stabilization will begin a little earlier.

What do the experts say?

Bogdan Zvarich, analyst at FINAM:

“The first half of the year promises to be extremely difficult. The dollar during this period may gain a foothold in the position of 80-85 rubles due to low oil prices. However, in the middle of 2016, the situation on the hydrocarbon market is expected to improve and the cost of oil will increase. By the end of the year, the dollar will return to the position of 60 rubles, inflation will be 7%, and GDP growth will be 0.2-0.5%.

Dmitry Kipa, Head of Analytics at QB Finance:

“The situation of low oil prices, which provokes the devaluation of the ruble, will not last forever. Individual OPEC countries will not be able to withstand the conditions of production at a price below cost, and they will begin to raise rates, saving their budgets. In this situation, the maximum value of the dollar will be 80 rubles, and inflation will be 15-17%.

Dmitry Zhuravlev, director of the Institute of Regional Problems:

« Macroeconomic indicators in 2016 will increase, and the indicators of life of citizens will decrease. But, neither one nor the other will be distinguished by high rates. The price of oil will remain low, not helping to improve the situation. This requires real diversification of the economy.”

A significant fall of the ruble in 2016 is not expected, but the national economy will continue to remain in a state of deep stagnation, which will negatively affect the incomes of citizens and their well-being. However, experts predict the peak of the crisis in the first half of the year, and from the summer the situation will begin to change for the better. .

2015 was a shock year for many Russians due to the unstable economic situation in the country. First of all, the stability of the national currency is important here, and its recent fluctuations cannot but make you worry about the future. So what threatens us all and what is fraught with the fall of the ruble in 2016: experts' forecasts on this matter are varied, but they all have a common negative denominator.

Before making at least some forecasts regarding the exchange rate of the Russian currency, it is worth understanding the reasons for its fall in 2015. The first and most painful is the rapid decline in the cost of oil on the world market. It is oil and natural gas that are the main export goods of the Russian Federation. If in 2014 a barrel of oil cost about $120, then in 2015 its cost was below $50. Previously, at least one could rely on countries that consume a lot of declared raw materials, but now they have slowed down and now in most of them it is time for an economic downturn.

Another factor against the growth of the ruble is geopolitics. After Crimea became part of the Russian Federation, a huge outflow of state capital to the new territory followed. After that, the country experienced several waves of Western sanctions that were imposed after the start of the well-known events in Ukraine. What will happen in the future is difficult to judge. In the near future, this conflict is unlikely to be resolved, especially since in the middle of summer the old EU voted to maintain sanctions. Therefore, if the protracted situation escalates, the sanctions are likely to only intensify.

We should not deny the fact that the strengthening of the dollar with negative side affects the Russian currency. This can be seen especially well over the past two years.

But the main reason that pushes the ruble, like the entire Russian economy down, are its internal problems. All two years ago, there was no question of a slowdown in economic growth, and the situation with Crimea and Ukraine seemed absurd. But as it turned out, the model of state development that has been used over the past 10 years has completely exhausted itself. On the this moment The Russian Federation demands the introduction of new structural reforms, because even if oil prices rise now and sanctions are eased, this is unlikely to lead to rapid economic growth.

So what will happen to the ruble in 2016? According to Alexei Kudrin, the former Minister of Finance of Russia, the economy of our country will sink to the very bottom and the worst for all of us is yet to come. The next 10 years, Russians expect a period of stagnation, when GDP will be almost exactly 0. Other economists make similar assumptions, according to which the current currency strengthening is a temporary phenomenon and the ruble will soon go down rapidly.

In the last 18 months alone, Russia has exhausted almost 150 billion of its gold and foreign exchange reserves. AT recent times this trend has stopped, although if the economic situation begins to worsen or oil prices go down again, this process may continue. It will take only 3-4 months to exhaust the country's Reserve Fund, and then what?

At the moment, I don't even want to think about it. As a result, it turns out that there are a lot of problems due to which the ruble exchange rate is constantly falling and not a single factor that could reverse this process. Of course, one must only hope for the best, but the moment of the onset of the not too good future should not be denied.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2019; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2019, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

Sanctions have not bypassed the industry Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. They understand it themselves Russian authorities but no decisive steps have yet been taken.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2019 📈📉

Per last years the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia fell more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration and economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2019.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current positions.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. GDP level will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator altogether. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Western partners' investment in securities and the assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its the state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have big influence on the stability of the national economy and on the exchange rate of the ruble, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its positions. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. Equipment left over from the times Soviet Union, does not allow to work at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer more high quality for about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2019 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

💡 We recommend that you first read the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". At the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the "Tools" tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" for more favorable conditions. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. Russian economy requires constant modernization and development by government bodies.
• Federal backup system USA, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2019, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2019 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2019. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the news about the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $69-70. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. When “breaking through” down $58, it goes into the range of $53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2019 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2019, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2019 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2019 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience and baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2019?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of presidential adviser, proposed his plan for economic development countries. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that he expects Russian people, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance and export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states, how Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of America's "powerful moves" that was staged to support the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2019?

We have already detailed possible predictions at the dollar rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rate which could have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2019: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it is worth understanding that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable cash. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

At the end of 2015, the Russian ruble resumed its fall against the US dollar. How and when will it all end?

First of all, it should be said that the fall in world oil prices, coupled with the huge debts of the United States and EU countries, lead to a decline in the economy not only in Russia - suffice it to recall the gradual devaluation of the yuan, which has been carried out by the People's Bank of China since the summer of 2015, the catastrophic fall of the Dow Jones in the USA in January 2016, as well as the desire of Saudi Arabia to borrow money!

As you can see, all economies in the world are now in a bad situation, only some are really bad, and some are just bad.

Against this background, it should be noted the balanced policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which carries out a smooth controlled devaluation of the ruble, preventing panic in the market. The smoothness in the fall of the national currency allows the Russian economy to adapt to some extent to the depreciation of the ruble, trying to find new points of growth.

Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil exporters and considered by many to be behind the current drop in oil prices along with the US, has adopted a budget for 2016 that sets an average annual oil price of $29/bbl. It is known from history that the price of oil has the following levels of stability: 38, 29 and 25 USD/barrel. Thus, it is clear that according to Saudi Arabia's forecasts, oil will not cost 25 USD/barrel, but, most likely, its price will fluctuate between 28-30 USD/barrel.

The price of a barrel of oil included in the Russian budget for 2016 is 3150 rubles, that is, the exchange rate of the national currency of the Russian Federation in 2016 can be expected to be about 105-112 rubles / USD. At the same time, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble, calculated at an oil price of 29 USD/barrel, may be 108-110 rubles/USD. Given the balanced policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which was mentioned earlier, shock scenarios for the fall of the ruble are not to be expected.

Such a low exchange rate of the ruble is expected to reduce Russia's GDP and increase unemployment, which will increase the burden on the budget. According to all forecasts, Russia will only have enough reserves until mid-2017, so it is already clear now that they will be spent very, very economically, which means that we should expect some unsecured emission of rubles and delays in wages.

But the Russian economy is not in a vacuum - the currencies of different countries are falling in the world, so the overall negative global trend, will certainly affect the Russian Federation.

Estimated summing up the decline of the economies of Russia and the world, we can add about 20% to the maximum fall of the ruble, that is, at the end of 2016, one should not be surprised at the ruble exchange rate equal to 135 rubles / USD.

The end of 2015 clearly showed that sanctions decisions have become quite popular in the world, so we should expect some tightening of sanctions against Russia by the EU countries and the United States. Such a policy may well add another 10-20% to the expected depreciation, that is, at the end of 2016, the ruble may well cost 150-160 rubles / USD.

As you can see, the Russian economy in 2016, it is quite possible that it will be difficult, but this is all to be expected: a loan is something that needs to be repaid. The essence of the prosperity of many countries of the world in the 2000s is loans, that is, what was already spent yesterday that will only be today. And now this very today has come, in which there is no money, because they were already spent yesterday.

In 2016, experts' forecasts allow another collapse of the ruble, which will be the result of a decline in oil prices.

At the same time, optimists are counting on the stabilization of the domestic currency before the end of the year. In addition to oil market trends, the value of the ruble depends on the pace of economic recovery and the policy of the Central Bank.

Oil Rally

The collapse of the ruble at the beginning of the year is associated with a fall in oil prices. "Black Gold" updates the next anti-records, reacting to the overstocking of the market. In the near future, oil will continue to fall in price, experts say, which will affect the weakening of the Russian currency. The decline in oil production may change the dynamics of the market. Already in February, the main exporters can discuss an action plan aimed at stabilizing prices for "black gold".

In the second half of the year, oil prices will resume growth, which will allow the ruble to regain its lost ground. At the end of the year, the Russian currency will return to the range of 60-70 rubles / dollar, experts admit. However, some analysts, including representatives Morgan Stanley, do not predict an increase in quotations above 30 dollars per barrel. until 2017.

Another factor affecting the position of the ruble is the dynamics of the Russian economy. The Ministry of Economic Development believes that the peak of the crisis is behind us, and the economy has managed to overcome the negative trend. According to the results of the current year, a slight decline in GDP (within 0.8%) will be recorded, which will be a signal for the restoration of economic development.

The assessments of international experts practically coincide with the government's forecast. Analysts Fitch expect a fall in GDP in 2016 by 1%, which is in line with the forecasts of experts from the European Commission. Growth is possible not earlier than next year, which will negatively affect the value of the ruble.

The dynamics of the dollar will depend on the policy of the Central Bank. In January, the regulator did not dare to change the key rate, fearing instability in the foreign exchange market. Alfa Bank representative Natalia Orlova is confident that the regulator will resume interventions if the exchange rate approaches the 80-90 rub./dollar line.

Economists' forecasts allow for two main scenarios: stabilization of the exchange rate or a new collapse.

Waiting for the collapse

Analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich does not rule out an increase in the dollar exchange rate above 100 rubles / dollar. This scenario is possible in the first half of the year, when oil prices may fall to $25 per barrel.

Expert Stepan Demura believes that the dynamics of the ruble will be much worse. The Russian currency will collapse to 125 rubles / dollar, while the situation will worsen in the second half of the year, when the government exhausts existing reserves.

If oil prices remain in the range of 30-40 dollars per barrel. within a year, the dollar exchange rate will exceed the bar of 100 rubles / dollar, Bank of America experts predict. In some periods, the cost of the American currency will reach 140 rubles. Otherwise, the government will not be able to maintain a three percent budget deficit.

In its turn Gazprombank analysts believe that the Russian currency has every chance to stabilize by the end of the year. According to their forecast, the value of the dollar in December will be in the range of 70-75 rubles / dollar.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts an average exchange rate of 68.2 rubles per dollar. The average cost of a barrel of oil will be $40.

budget question

In the current conditions, the main problem of officials is the reduction of the budget deficit. The Ministry of Finance has already launched the process of attracting external borrowings, which will be quite difficult to implement under the current sanctions. In addition, the ministry has developed a number of measures to reduce budget expenditures. The possibility of selling state-owned stakes in large companies is also being discussed.

If all these instruments do not bring the desired result, the authorities may go for a further devaluation of the ruble. This will help protect government revenues from negative impact low prices for oil.

The position of the ruble will be determined three key factors:

• oil market dynamics;
• economic recovery;
• central bank policy.

In 2016, experts predict two main scenarios for the Russian currency: stabilization or another collapse.

Under the most favorable scenario, the value of the dollar will stabilize within the range of 60-70 rubles/dollar. The pessimistic scenario assumes a collapse to new anti-records. In the short term, the dollar exchange rate can reach 140 rubles / dollar.